An article by Edith Castillo Duarte in Prensa.com reports the upward shift of the expected growth of Panama’s economy in 2011 by both the government and the consulting firm INDESA, and how estimates of both parties agree. During the first quarter economic growth has already exceeded expectations, reaching 9.7%.
"The former minister and INDESA’s managing partner, William Chapman, said an important factor in terms of total demand in 2011 will be public investment, including works by the Central Government and the expansion of the Canal.
Investment by the nonfinancial public sector could reach 8% of GDP, compared with 6% in 2009.
On the other hand, the Canal expansion represents 4% of GDP this year and is expected to exceed $30 billion by the end of 2011.
Private investment in averaged priced buildings, mainly hotels, commercial buildings, offices and infrastructure, could grow by 11.6%, which would mean a further boost to the economy.
Consumption would be even more dynamic in the domestic market fueled by economic growth, credit, and supplemented by tourism, said the former Minister of Economy during the monthly forum with INDESA’s clients.
Exports, particularly of services, is another sector expected to grow at a rapid pace (10.1%).
Factors that could jeopardize these projections are: a prolonged and widespread conflict in the Middle East, oil prices rising to extremely high levels, a stagnation in the domestic political process, a European financial crisis and a fall in direct foreign investment. "
Source: Prensa.com
More on this topic
August 2008
Even though the public debt has gone up $383 million so far this year, all seems to indicate that this increase could be reversed by the close of this year.
Some private sector analysts are betting that the total will decrease.
"During the first semester of the year, the Government received close to $500 million more that what was budgeted and therefore can reduce the debt using those funds.
February 2009
Consulting firm Indesa lowered its forecast for panamanian economic growth; its was at 5.7% in December.
According to a note published on prensa.com: "I am inclined towards the pessimistic projections, around 4%. In a situation like the current one, unemployment could increase to 5%,' Guillermo Chapman, president of Indesa, said yesterday."
July 2008
The consulting firms Indesa and Deloitte estimate that Panama's economy will grow by seven to eight percent this year.
This is slower than the 11.2 percent growth in 2007, with a pattern similar to that of the period 2004-2006.
Some international firms, like the Economist Intelligence Unit, are forecasting even higher growth and are predicting that Panama will again be the fastest-growing economy in Latin America this year.
March 2012
The expectation is that GDP will increase by 8.3%, a slight cooling off from the nearly 11% in 2011.
Panama has maintained a remarkable record of economic growth in recent years, despite the effects of the global economic crisis which began in 2008.
In 2011, the GDP growth rate reached 10.9%, driven by the construction sector, which grew by 18.5%, along with mining (18.4%), trade (15.9%), transport and communications (13.7%), financial intermediation (7.6%) and hotels and restaurants (7.6%).
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